Leading manufacturer of household and commercial appliances
Global future scenarios for desirable living
Challenge
How do the multiple crises of our time affect the reality of our lives? For example, what impact do pandemics, resource shortages, and economic crises have on the way we live? And what decisions should companies make today in this context in order to actively shape the possible futures? For a household and appliances manufacturer, we created an umbrella scenario for future product development in China, the USA, Asia Pacific, and Europe.
Our Approach
Housing is a complex construct and the result of cultural, economic, and political factors - and therefore always locally specific. In order to successfully incorporate these factors, our approach pursued the development of three solid pillars that led to the creation of housing scenarios for 2030: a global view based on world events, a local perspective from particularly progressive regions, and an expert perspective from the industry. The aim: plausible extreme developments for probable housing scenarios in the future.
The result
As a result of a participatory process, we created scenarios that show the different living environments, as well as wishes and concerns in the context of housing, but also highlight market-specific opportunities and challenges. The umbrella scenarios cover dominant residential scenarios in a global development over the next 10 years and serve as the basis for controlling assumptions and translating them into operational markets.
Key Insights
- Compressed set of trends that were validated for relevance and probability of occurrence for a period of the next 10 years with the help of experts
- Key distinctions between residential properties based on cultural, political and regional factors
- Inclusion of structural and social changes, such as new consumer, leisure, and family constellations
- Transparent chain of events based on a PESTL analysis, which provides the basis for premise controlling
- Market opportunities and market risks validated by experts
Methods
- Weak-signal analysis and trend research
- Delphi method and expert interviews
- Future Narrative and Back Casting
- Causality analysis
New Growth
New growth is possible where change and its potential are recognized early on. The "Residential" scenario project not only highlights key global developments and trends that need to be tracked. It also shows the consequences they can have for your own company and its portfolio. And it enables us to work positively towards a sufficient and liveable living environment in a cross-market unity at an early stage in line with our own sustainable corporate positioning.
Further projects
We are happy to receive project inquiries
Elisa Müller,
Business Partnerin Company Innovation
